How the risk score is built
No black box and no mystery. Six open signals feed a fixed formula to produce a risk score and a confidence band. Here is exactly what goes in and how the pieces fit together.
Six signals, fixed weights
Each factor carries a set share of the score. The weights never move, so two matchups are always measured on the same scale.
Form edge
28%How the two sides compare on recent results, expected goals or points and the quality of their run.
Market agreement
24%How closely our own read lines up with the price the market is offering on the same outcome.
Injury impact
18%The effect of absences and late fitness news on the strength of the projected lineup.
Home context
12%Venue advantage, crowd and travel load, which all shift the ground a matchup is played on.
Rest balance
10%Recovery days for each side, including the fatigue of a short turnaround or a second game in a row.
Volatility
8%How erratic the matchup has looked lately, which widens the range of believable outcomes.
From weighted signals to a single number.
Every signal is scaled so that a higher value means more risk. Each one is multiplied by its weight and the results are added together. That gives a risk score on a clean 0 to 100 scale where a lower number points to a steadier spot.
Confidence is the mirror of that score, adjusted for how much the form read and the market read agree. When both point the same way, confidence rises. When they split, it eases back.
risk = Σ ( signal × weight )
confidence = 100 − risk − spread
where spread grows when the
form read and market read
disagree.Reading the tiers
The number sits inside a labelled band so you can size up a matchup at a glance.
Signals agree and the range of outcomes looks narrow.
A reasonable lean with a fair amount still in play.
Signals pull in different directions. Tread with care.
Wide open. Best treated as a watch rather than a play.
Principles that keep the platform honest.
Open by default
Weights, signals and outcomes are all on show. If you cannot inspect it, it does not belong in the score.
Information, never instruction
The platform hands you a read. It never places a stake and never tells you what you must do.
Honest about chance
Sport turns on moments no model can see coming. We frame every rating as a lean, not a lock.
See the model on the live board.
Now that you know how the score is built, put it to work on the live board.