How our AI betting predictions are built
No black box and no mystery. Six open signals feed a fixed formula to produce a risk score and a confidence band. Here is exactly what goes in and how the pieces fit together. New to the site? Start with the step by step beginner guide instead.
Six signals, fixed weights
Each factor carries a set share of the score. The weights never move, so two matchups are always measured on the same scale.
Form edge
28%How the two sides compare on recent results, blending the data provider’s form rating with each team’s last five games.
Market agreement
24%How strongly the model’s own win probability backs the side the market price favours, with extra risk when the two disagree.
Injury impact
18%Players listed out for each side. Absences on the side we back raise risk, absences on the other side ease it.
Home context
12%The home or away win rate this season for the side we back, and the gap in league position between the two teams.
Rest balance
10%Days since each side last played, with a penalty when the side we back is on a two day turnaround.
Volatility
8%How likely a draw is and how close the two sides are, which widens the range of believable outcomes.
From weighted signals to a single number.
Every signal is scaled so that a higher value means more risk. Each one is multiplied by its weight and the results are added together. That gives a risk score on a clean 0 to 100 scale where a lower number points to a steadier spot.
Confidence is the mirror of that score, adjusted for how much the form read and the market read agree. When both point the same way, confidence rises. When they split, it eases back.
risk = Σ ( signal × weight )
confidence = 100 − risk − spread
where spread grows when the
form read and market read
disagree.Reading the tiers
The number sits inside a labelled band so you can size up a matchup at a glance.
Signals agree and the range of outcomes looks narrow.
A reasonable lean with a fair amount still in play.
Signals pull in different directions. Tread with care.
Wide open. Best treated as a watch rather than a play.
Principles that keep the platform honest.
Open by default
Weights, signals and outcomes are all on show. If you cannot inspect it, it does not belong in the score.
Information, never instruction
The platform hands you a read. It never places a stake and never tells you what you must do.
Honest about chance
Sport turns on moments no model can see coming. We frame every rating as a lean, not a lock.
See the model on the board.
Now that you know how the score is built, put it to work on the board.